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SLU/YouGov Poll: Proposed Abortion Amendment Leads by 7 Points; Republicans Ahead on Generic Ballot

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Majorities oppose data centers and expanding sales taxes to gas, car repairs, and home sales

ST. LOUIS - The February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll surveyed 900 likely Missouri voters about their opinions regarding abortion amendments, state income taxes, data centers, and matters considered by the Missouri state government.

Abortion and Gender-Affirming Care

Sales vs. Income Taxes

Key National Politics Findings

Key State Politics Findings

The margin of error for the full survey sample is ± 3.63%. Top-line survey results can be found here. Results with demographic and party cross-tabs can be found here.

Abortion Amendment Leads in Poll

In 2026, Missouri will become the first state in the nation where voters are asked to repeal a post-Dobbs, voter-approved abortion rights amendment. The February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll presented respondents with the full ballot language of the proposed constitutional amendment, which would repeal 2024's Amendment 3, allow narrower exceptions for rape, incest, emergencies, and fetal anomalies, require parental consent for minors seeking abortions, and prohibit gender transition procedures for minors. Forty-seven percent of likely voters say they would support the amendment, 40% would oppose it, and 12% are not sure. 

Voters' views on abortion have remained remarkably stable since the SLU/YouGov Poll surveyed Missouri voters about them in August 2022. Broad majorities continue to support abortion access in cases of rape (78%), incest (78%), and when a woman's life is endangered (85%), and these numbers are virtually unchanged from four years ago. Fifty-nine percent agree abortion should be legal in the first 8 weeks of pregnancy, nearly identical to 2022, while support drops to 47% at 12 weeks and 35% at 15 weeks. Just 36% believe abortion should be legal for any reason. Voters who support the amendment are not uniformly opposed to all abortion access: 74% of amendment supporters agree abortion should be legal in cases of rape, and 81% agree when a woman's life is endangered.

Views on Gender-Affirming Care Shape Amendment Support

The February 2026 Poll provides evidence that voters' views on gender-affirming care for minors shape their position on the amendment. Among voters who oppose the amendment, 45% favor hormone therapy or puberty blockers for minors and 27% favor surgery, compared to just 7% of amendment supporters on each measure. Statistical analysis of the poll data suggests that attitudes toward gender-affirming care are a stronger predictor of amendment support than abortion attitudes, even after accounting for party identification, gender, age, education, and income. 

"The ballot language bundles together abortion and gender-affirming care restrictions into a single up-or-down vote," said Steven Rogers, Ph.D., SLU/YouGov Poll Director and associate professor of political science at Saint Louis University. "Our data suggest that for many voters, where they stand on gender-affirming care for minors may play a larger role in shaping their position on this amendment than their views on abortion."

Republicans Lead Generic Ballot as Voters Question New Congressional Map

Congress is deeply unpopular: just 32% of Missouri likely voters approve of its performance, down 9 points since February 2025, while 64% disapprove (margin of error ±5.19%). However, Republicans maintain a 12-point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, with 51% saying they would vote for the Republican candidate in their district compared to 39% for the Democratic candidate. The Republican advantage in the poll is about 8 to 9 points narrower than the roughly 20-point margin Republicans achieved in the 2024 U.S. House elections across Missouri's eight districts. Seven percent of voters are not sure whom they would support.

"Seventy-six percent of Independent voters disapprove of Congress's performance, yet Independents are divided in the 2026 U.S. House elections, with 38% saying they would support the Republican candidate and 38% the Democratic candidate," said Rogers.

Despite Republicans' electoral advantage on the generic ballot, Missouri voters expressed skepticism about the state legislature's new congressional district map, signed into law by Governor Kehoe in September. The map was drawn with the stated goal of helping Republicans win seven of Missouri's eight U.S. House seats. Forty-four percent of voters oppose the new map, 41% support it, and 15% are not sure. Independent voters oppose the map by a wide margin, with 52% opposed and just 34% in support.

“Among Republican voters, only 68% support the new map, and 21% are not sure," said Rogers. "Even in these partisan times, more than one in five Republican voters has not yet decided whether to support a map drawn by their own party's legislature to favor their own party in Congress."

Voters Prefer Sales Taxes but Oppose Specific Tax Expansions

Missouri voters express a clear preference for sales taxes over individual income taxes as the primary source of state revenue. Fifty-two percent of voters favor relying more on sales taxes, compared to 29% who prefer income taxes, aligning with Governor Kehoe's goal of phasing out the state income tax. However, voters express considerably less support for the types of sales taxes likely needed to offset lost income tax revenue. Majorities oppose applying the sales tax to gas and diesel fuel (55%), car repair services (60%), and home sale transactions (53%). Streaming services come closest to majority support, with 43% in favor and 44% opposed (margin of error ±5.19%). However, even among voters who say Missouri should rely more on sales taxes, only applying sales taxes to streaming services and professional services, such as accounting and legal fees, has majority support, at 51% and 50%, respectively.

Geographic divisions emerge across the specific sales tax proposals examined in the poll. 

“Suburban voters are most resistant to taxing home sales, with 64% opposed, likely reflecting the higher home values and number of sales in those communities," said Rogers. "Rural voters push back hardest on gas and car repair taxes, which hit people who drive long distances and rely heavily on their vehicles."

Data Centers

Data center construction is a topic of debate in Missouri, with proponents citing new revenue sources and opponents worried about environmental and electricity impacts. To assess where likely Missouri voters would support or oppose data center construction, the SLU/YouGov Poll asked two randomly selected groups of voters the same question about a new data center. One group was asked about a data center being built in their local community and the other about a data center being built in the state of Missouri. Support was similarly low in both cases, with 30% supporting a data center in their local community and 31% supporting one being built in Missouri (margin of error ±5.19%). Forty-nine percent of voters oppose a data center in their local community, compared to 44% who oppose one being built in the state, a five percent difference. 

"When voters are thinking about a data center closer to home, opposition rises," said Rogers. "This is especially true for suburban voters, who oppose a local data center by a 32-point margin, but this margin narrows to 16 points when asked about a data center being built anywhere in the state."

Approval Ratings Slip Slightly for Trump and Kehoe

More voters approve than disapprove of both President Donald Trump and Governor Mike Kehoe, but each is less popular than a year ago. Trump's approval in February, prior to the intervention in Iran, stood at 52%, down 4 percent from February 2025, while disapproval has risen to 47%. Senators Josh Hawley and Eric Schmitt are the most stable figures in the poll, each dropping just 1 percent in approval from a year ago. Fifty percent of likely Missouri voters approve of Hawley's performance, and 43% disapprove, while Schmitt's approval is 47% and disapproval is 38%, producing the largest net positive rating of any political actor in the February 2026 poll.

"Trump still holds majority approval among Missouri likely voters, but his support has shifted," said Rogers. "Strong approval dropped 12 percent in a year, replaced largely by softer approval. He still has a majority, but it is less enthusiastic than it was in 2025." 

These weaker approval numbers coincide with a decline in voters' sense that the country is headed in the right direction. Forty-two percent of voters agree the United States is on the right track, down 9 percent from February 2025, while 50% disagree.

Kehoe and the Missouri State Legislature also remain relatively popular but have similarly lost ground. Kehoe's approval dropped 3 percent to 47%, while his disapproval rose 11 percent to 42%. The Missouri State Legislature holds steady at 48% approval, but disapproval has climbed 5 percent to 45% (margin of error ±5.19%). Views on the state's direction have also slightly fallen: 45% agree Missouri is on the right track, down from 47% in February 2025 (margin of error ±5.19%).

Economic Ratings Improve but Remain Largely Negative

Trump and Kehoe’s approval fell slightly, even though economic ratings improved over the past year. The share of voters rating the U.S. economy as excellent or good increased 18 percent, from 14% in February 2025 to 32% in February 2026. Ratings of Missouri's state economy also improved, rising 10 percent to 31% saying the economy is excellent or good. Despite these gains, two in three voters still rate both economies as fair or poor, and voters continue to name the economy as the top priority for the Missouri state government.

Ratings for crime and roads and infrastructure both reached their highest levels in the SLU/YouGov Poll since 2020, though majorities of voters still rate both negatively. Forty-six percent of voters rate crime in their community as excellent or good, continuing six consecutive waves of improvement since a low of 34% in August 2022. Ratings for roads and infrastructure reached 30% excellent or good, up 7 percent from a year ago and coinciding with the ongoing $2.8 billion I-70 expansion signed into law by former Governor Mike Parson in 2023. Despite these improvements, 69% of voters still rate roads and infrastructure as fair or poor.

Voters Concerned About Prescription Drug Costs and Support Insulin Price Caps

Sixty-five percent of likely Missouri voters rate their physical health as excellent or good, and 67% say the same about their mental health. However, Missouri voters are broadly worried about the cost of prescription drugs. Seventy-eight percent of likely voters say they are very or somewhat worried about prescription drug costs. Democrats and Independents express concern at somewhat higher rates than Republicans. Among voters who rate their physical health as fair or poor, 86% say they are worried about prescription drug costs, compared to 74% of those who rate their health as good or excellent.

"When we see numbers like this, it tells us that voters across the political spectrum feel the pressure at the pharmacy counter," said Rogers.

When asked about insulin prices, the February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll found that 81% of Missouri likely voters favor setting a $35 monthly cap on out-of-pocket insulin costs. The $35 threshold mirrors the cap Medicare beneficiaries receive. The Missouri legislature is currently considering SB 1156, which would cap out-of-pocket insulin costs at $30 per month.

Voters Back School Report Cards, But Give Missouri Schools Mixed Grades

In January, Governor Mike Kehoe issued Executive Order 26-01 directing the creation of A–F report cards for public schools and school districts. In March, the Missouri House passed HB 2710 by a 96-53 vote to establish a similar report card system in state law. The SLU/YouGov Poll finds public support for the proposal: 60% of Missouri likely voters support publishing annual A–F report cards for public schools and school districts, while 18% oppose it. Voters with children in K–12 schools are about 10% less likely to support creating such report cards.

When asked to give their local school district a letter grade, 47% of voters assign an A or B, while 37% give a C, D, or F, and 17% are not sure. Parents are significantly more positive: 61% of voters with children in school give their local district an A or B, compared to 45% of voters without children in school. In a separate question, 51% of likely Missouri voters rate public schools in their community as fair or poor, while 43% rate them as excellent or good. The share rating schools fair or poor represents a 4% improvement from the February 2025 poll.

Methodology and Funding

YouGov interviewed 900 likely Missouri voters between February 9 and February 22, 2026. The YouGov panel, a proprietary opt-in survey panel, is comprised of 3.1 million United States residents who have agreed to participate in YouGov Web surveys. Using their gender, age, race, and education, YouGov weighted the set of survey respondents to known characteristics of Missouri voters from the American Community Survey (ACS) public use microdata file, public voter file records, the 2020 Current Population Survey (CPS) Voting and Registration supplements, the 2020 National Election Pool (NEP) exit poll, and the 2020 CES surveys, including demographics and 2020 presidential vote. 

The February 2026 SLU/YouGov Poll was funded by SLU’s College of Arts & Sciences. Additional grant funding from the Missouri Humanities Council supports the poll. The Missouri Humanities Council, along with Saint Louis University’s William L. Clay, Sr. Institute of Civic Engagement and Economic Justice, will host a public event on civic engagement on April 27, 2026. 

About YouGov

YouGov conducts surveys for multiple academic institutions and is the primary, trusted survey firm for media organizations, including CBS News and The Economist. FiveThirtyEight (538) ranked YouGov as one of the top pollsters in the country, with respect to its strong commitment to accuracy and transparency in polling and in September 2024, The New York Times reported “Only YouGov, long at the cutting edge of [online] polling, is still producing reasonably accurate results with [online] panels.”

About Saint Louis University

Founded in 1818, Saint Louis University is one of the nation’s oldest and most prestigious Catholic research institutions. Rooted in Jesuit values and its pioneering history as the first university west of the Mississippi River, SLU offers more than 15,300 students a rigorous, transformative education that challenges and prepares them to make the world a better place. As a nationally recognized leader in research and innovation, SLU is an R1 research university, advancing groundbreaking, life-changing discoveries that promote the greater good.